RV's...how much longer?

[hugho]

I am an amateur energy analyst and would like to throw this topic out for discussion. In North America in the past decade there has been a big RV boom and the ill conceived pandemic shutdown response plan has also fueled this boom. Big trucks and RVs are seemingly everywhere this past summer especially here in Jackson Wyoming. I am afraid that this boom is long in the tooth and the rise in fossil energy worldwide will in my opinion curtail any more expansion. Despite government assurances to the contrary I think we are heading for a severe recession with inflation, which is a bad combination. Rising fossil energy prices are a big piece of the picture. We were heading for relative curtailment of middle distillate supply by early winter even without the Ukraine war. World crude oil production peaked in 2018 and the lack of exploration for significant new sources has set the table for the decade ahead.
Diesel and other middle distillates are in relatively short supply world wide and we should plan on prices staying where they are for the foreseeable future and then climbing over the decade even here in the US. The kind of light sweet crude suitable for abundant diesel refining is limited worldwide. Gasoline looks to be a better bet going forward and of course it is generally quite a bit cheaper than diesel. I think we RV'ers need to wake up to these rising costs of energy and expect that one day fuels, especially diesel may be rationed which will derail the motorhome and big RVs. Diesel will be preferentially allocated to Agriculture, mining, airlines, commercial transportation, shipping and of course the military and we private citizens will be at the end of the line.Small light RV's and even we Alaskancamper types are better positioned going forward IMO.

 

[Espresso]

The flip side is, as people transition to EV's, their will be less demand there for gas and diesel.

 

[lqhikers]

Sorry Espresso, it will be past your lifetime, and mine before their will be less demand for gas and diesel, please if you are going to drink the kool aid try to remember that the world is not just San Francisco and Calif.
Off course this is my opinion your is allowed to differ.
Les, lqhikers.

 

[Casa Escarlata Robles Too]

Les you are so right.I don't see how "everyone" can have an EV,the same for solar.

How are people who rent,have to park on the street or their building isn't wired
and maybe can't be wired for EV charging,going to charge their car?

IMO what is needed are more cars like the Chevy volt that powered by electric and
have a small generator on board to charge the battery.

Frank

 

[ckent323]

I have read several papers on the holistic full life cycle cost analysis (including environmental and health costs) of Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs) and Electric Vehicles (EVs).

The conclusions seem to show that the EVs are about break even with ICEs in total life cycle cost.

However, there are some very large assumptions relative to economies of scale and commercial disposal of the end of life batteries. I call assumptions like these arm waiving. I have heard many arguments over my lifetime about future technology breakthroughs solving problems caused by environmental destruction and safe disposal of the hazardous wastes. So far a lot more promise than reality. Plastics, tires, batteries, nuclear fuel to name a few.

End of life recycling aside the first order problem is that there are not enough existing mines to supply the raw materials if all vehicles were EV. Indeed it will take a decade or more of development of new mining and manufacturing infrastructure to supply enough batteries to replace all ICE vehicles.

I have also done a fair amount of reading on oil and gas as well as refining . The old website "The Oil Drum" was a great free resource. Sadly it is gone and the best free replacement I have found is Oilprice.com. The EIA is also a good resource of information n all forms of energy not just oil and gas.

Diesel and gasoline (along with other fuels) are distillates of oil and the amount a refinery gets out of a barrel of oil depends on the quality of the crude but more importantly on the design of the refinery (what percentages of particular distillates are desired). In the US Petroleum refineries in the United States produce about 19 to 20 gallons of motor gasoline and 11 to 12 gallons of ultra-low sulfur distillate fuel oil (most of which is sold as diesel fuel and in several states as heating oil) from one 42-gallon barrel of crude oil.

There is still a lot of oil in the ground. Oil is a commodity and the laws of supply and demand (subject to some manipulation by international politics and giant oil brokers storing or releasing millions of barrels of oil) is what determines price of a barrel. The cost of the refined products that we use depend on the cost of extraction, transportation, refining and delivery.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969721079493

 

[Casa Escarlata Robles Too]

Interesting incite Craig,thanks.
There is always more to issues then written about.
There are always two sides to a story.Having as many facts
as possible helps to make good decisions.
Frank

 

[Aquadoc]

CKent, sad thing about NUC, we've got the tech for building spent rod reactors. It would be nice to know a good reason for not building them.

 

[AWG_Pics]

If you will allow a few points from an old petroleum geophysicist turned environmental cleanup and restoration person:

- Peak Oil has been predicted to be not far off, over the last 70 years, by my last count, some 20 plus times, always moving the target further into the future. As CKent said: "There is a lot of oil in the ground."

- Small scale nuclear has significant waste generation aspects: https://news.stanford.edu/2022/05/30/small-modular-reactors-produce-high-levels-nuclear-waste/ This is significant because we do not yet have a high level nuclear waste repository.

- The electric grid is severely strained at certain times due to weather and natural events. Adding much more solar vehicle charging demand requires significant changes to the grid, at significant costs.

- The principle of supply and demand suggests gas and diesel prices and availability will continue to vary based on changes in demand followed, with some lag, by changes in supply.

- Whether or not we are on the verge of a recession is a matter of speculation. Lots of very well informed experts cannot agree if we are or are not facing a recession. There probably are limits to growth, and now that we have 8 billion people on earth, we likely are not at that limit now or in the near future.

I am not worried that the type of vehicle I buy, gas, diesel or solar, will make a jot of difference in the big picture. So I will keep my gasser and try to wear it out before I wear myself out.

Tony

 

[Vic Harder]

So I will keep my gasser and try to wear it out before I wear myself out.

Tony

Me too!

 

[JaSAn]

. . .
- The electric grid is severely strained at certain times due to weather and natural events. Adding much more solar vehicle charging demand requires significant changes to the grid, at significant costs.
. . .

IMO it is leadership incompetence to force increased demand for electricity (mandate sale of EVs) before securing increased supply (power plants, distribution). That is unless there is a different agenda.

 

[PaulT]

Those telling us that by 2030, we will own nothing and be happy about it do have a different agenda. Our complacent behavior will serve them well.

Chocolate covered ants tasted ok. Perhaps, high protein cricket bread won’t be that bad.

Four hundred private jets at COP27 was balanced by a broken sewer, but John Kerry flew commercial for a change.

I need to go camping somewhere warm with red rocks. I guess I didn’t manage to dodge Seasonal Affective Disorder this year.

Paul

 

[ski3pin]

So I will keep my gasser and try to wear it out before I wear myself out.

Tony

Me too!

Add us to the list, please!

 

[smlobx]

As was said above the end of oil reserves has been predicted many times. In the early 70’s when I was taking a geology class the prof said the world would be out of oil by 1990…clearly not the case but we were going through the first major energy crisis our country experienced..fortunately science and engineering marched on and we now have significantly more capabilities to extract oil in much deeper strata than ever.

I find the whole discussion about EV’s interesting. Many choose to frame it as all or nothing but I prefer to look at it as more of a blended solution. As an example, many households have 2 or more vehicles. If only one of them were an EV then local trips could be taken easily without too much disruption to one’s schedule and it would significantly reduce the amount of oil we need on a daily basis.

I know that the question of how reliable “The Grid”, particularly in Cali is is a concern, but using solar panels and home battery back up is a way to mitigate it.

In short, we will need a diversified “portfolio” of energy solutions as we move forward and oil will be one of those for a long time.

 

[Wandering Sagebrush]

I just read that Oregon is banning the sale of gasoline cars by 2035. Hybrid vehicles are excepted.

 

[OregonOzzy]

smlobx, I agree on your comment about a diversified portfolio.
I am travelling in Pakistan right now. On my last trip 14 years ago, the "in" thing was for everyone to have a gasoline generator for a very unreliable power grid. Now with most houses with solar panels, everyone is selling power back to the Electric Co's. There is talk of the Elect Co's reducing the buy-back rates. Most people are using UPS units combined with solar panels; much reduced fossil fuel usage.
Point being, a lot can change between now and next 13 years when my home state of Oregon bans sale of new gasoline cars.
I could not have imagined typing this while riding a bus between Lahore and Islamabad, while my son streams his NetFlix movies, 14 years ago either.

 

[Stray Dog]

electric vehicles... so much in demand that the government has to mandate their use and then subsidize their purchase.

 

[ckent323]

smlobx

There is lots of oil left in the ground. The cost of extraction has been the primary limiting factor.

The world has yet to experience the consequences of the increased mining of heavy metals along with the heavy metal disposal issues at the end of battery life that the push for 100's of millions of EVs will bring. It will become problematic. Regulation will be required since corporations have demonstrated time and time again that they cannot be trusted to pay attention to environmental and safety issues unless there is a financial benefit in doing so (avoiding fines, sanctions, etc). Of course the Politicians most frequently wait until the problems are already a big issue before implementing regulations. As with our predecessors relative to their contributions to climate change, many of us alive now will be gone when these problems become severe.

 

[BBZ]

Certainly not everyone can have an electric vehicle for a variety of reasons..

We are lucky to have our Gas Guzzling FWC carrying truck (which also doubles as a work vehicle for our roofing business), a hybrid Prius (which I can use for most of my work, just not hauling stuff obviously) and a full electric Kia EV6. We drive a good amount and the EV has been really nice to have, saved a good chunk of gas money this year, not to mention the tax incentives. Charging costs are around $8 (at home) to get us a full charge and a range around 300 miles (varies based on weather, high of 360 ish, low of 250 ish when really cold). We have solar and in sunny CO its impressive..

Good options out there but if everyone had an EV, the grid would be in big trouble..

 

[Mighty Dodge Ram]

Well said ckent323, well said.