Oh goody, another hurricane?

[Foy]

As the late weekend arrival of Hurricane Joaquin approaches, it occurs to me that these events here on the East Coast have similarities to the approach of wildfires in the West:

Approach speed measured in low double digit mph.

Track steered by regional weather patterns

Damages far and wide from storm center

Total destruction of property likely within core of storm

Prep time of a day or two, or less

Nothing one can do but remove irreplaceable articles and hunker down


We're expecting a major nor'easter Friday/Sat and it's expected to bring 5-8" of rain to add to the 3-4" we've gotten in NC since it started raining every day last week. By Sunday, we will break a 70 year old record for consecutive days with measureable rainfall. If the hurricane follows the western side of the forecast track, most of NC will receive 4-6" more rain overtop of the 5-8" from the nor'easter. That same western track could provide a direct hit on Virginia Beach, VA. Some parts of coastal NC have seen 12-13" in the last week.

We have the great good fortune to own, as a family, a modest but sturdy beach house on the south shore of Chesapeake Bay in Virginia Beach. As of the NOAA 5pm update yesterday, I went into prep mode. Depending on the 11 am update today, it's likely by the time the 5pm update is released, the truck will be fueled, cordless power tools and gennie in the back, drywall screws and Tapcons in the boxes, and a cooler with bottled water and ration of Pop Tarts iced down. If the 11pm update tonight further reinforces a westward track, a fishing buddy and I will roll at 0500 tomorrow to board up the north- and east-facing windows (using the pre-drilled and coded lumber and plywood already laid out in the garage), dump the refrigerator's contents, kill the water and power at the mains, and run away back inland as fast as we can, just as we did for Isabel in '03 and Irene in '11. We've got it down to around 3 hours on station.

Each region has its own challenges with what Mother Nature can bring. Drought, wildfire, and earthquakes out West; tornadoes, hurricanes, and floods back East. Time to man up and deal with her.

Foy

 

[ski3pin]

Best of luck dealing with this, Foy. If the eastern Pacific keeps warming, southern California could deal with a tropical storm sometime in the future or even a hurricane. Could you imagine? Good to hear you have precautions dialed in. Get it done and take care.

 

[kmacafee]

I just spent a week on the northern Outer Banks up near Corolla and we had perfect weather. But we all were amazed by how big the houses are built right behind the dunes. They stand 4 and 5 stories with all of the living area above the dunes exposed to the elements. And construction quality seems questionable.

Foy -- best of luck and hope the storm tracks eastward out to sea.

 

[highz]

Hope your beach house escapes damage. Be safe.

 

[takesiteasy]

Good luck with the storm. I imagine it is stressful waiting but it sounds like you have a good plan.

 

[Foy]

I just spent a week on the northern Outer Banks up near Corolla and we had perfect weather. But we all were amazed by how big the houses are built right behind the dunes. They stand 4 and 5 stories with all of the living area above the dunes exposed to the elements. And construction quality seems questionable.

Foy -- best of luck and hope the storm tracks eastward out to sea.

You spent the same week on the OBX that my mother spent on the Bay, just 40 miles or so north. The following week saw a stalled high to the northwest and a stalled low to the southeast, with a classic double-fetch blow out of the north-northeast which ran sustained 20 kts gusting 25-30 kts for SIX DAYS. It then started raining one week ago today and hasn't stopped yet.

On the good news front, the 11 am NOAA forecast track update shows another shift to the east. If that holds out or improves @ the 5 pm and 11 pm updates, I'll stay put and work tomorrow, still watching for a last minute turn. In recent years, however, the forecast tracks have worked out pretty well inside of about 72 hours. That suggests that the forecast track as of tomorrow afternoon will likely be on target when it gets up this way come Sunday.

The house is solid. Built in the late 1940s out of real cinder blocks and the double-hipped roof with minimal overhang does not catch the wind badly. The neighbors, who own the "McMansions" on both sides, and all up and down the beach, call our doughty old place "The Bunker" and swear they're riding out any storm in our place rather than their own.

I hear 'ya as to the 7,500+ sq ft McMansions from Southern Shores, through Duck, and up to Corolla. They're mostly mid-1980s and newer construction and I would not want to be in one during a hurricane. And that's aside from the reality that they're built on nothing more than a fairly wide and somewhat grassy sandbar (narrow barrier island).

Foy

 

[Foy]

Suh-Weet!

Each 6-hour update moves Joaquin's track farther east. No beach board-up mission required.

Now if our oaks and hickories can withstand some nor'easter winds and another few inches of rain. The soil they're rooted in has the consistency of pancake batter and the full green leaf canopy catches the wind like sails.

We'll take these risks over a Category 3 or 4 hurricane any day.

Foy

 

[ski3pin]

Sure glad the forecast is looking so much better for you!

 

[Squatch]

We are getting hammer with rain here too in the Mid Atlantic. We just left the Outer Banks a week or so ago as well. The last day or so had the surf really kicking up. We were on Ocracoke Island. Nothing on that little sand bar to hide behind when the wind kicks up.

Just checked the forecast and Joaquin is still turning away from the coast. Good news. We need the rain but even without the Hurricane we'll get it from the system that's currently stalled here. Even if it misses the coast Joaquin will still effect the whole eastern seaboard.

 

[longhorn1]

The God's are with you Foy.

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Wander The West mobile app

 

[Foy]

Roger that.

We are fortunately well above even record tidal flood elevations. The highest for which records were kept was the Ash Wednesday Storm in 1962, a 4-5 day long nor'easter which kept the tides from falling. That storm reached a shade over 8' at Sewells Point in nearby Norfolk. Tides this weekend, Oct 3-4, crested at around 6.75' above normal. Pretty much the same deal as with Ash Wednesday--stalled nor'easter not letting tides out, so a new high every 12.25 hours or so. Even before this nor'easter, it has blown > 20 knots sustained, with gusts as high as 42 knots, from the north or northeast each and every day since Sunday Sept 20, excepting one day when it fell briefly below 15 knots sustained. It's blowing 20-30 knots from the north as I type this on Monday morning at 0930 EDST.

Foy