Go camping under stay at home order?

Comparing Covid 19 to the flu is apples to oranges. Imagine the infection and death rates without shuttng down sporting,music,schools and all sorts of large gatherings.This has been around for a few months and people are compairing a years worth of flu deaths and infections with no social distancing. That is not a fair comparison.
 
Well pandemic or not I am getting the camper May 20th. That's about 6 weeks later than originally ready. I will be driving directly there (15 hours or so) staying in the camper that night and then on Wednesday Rory and the crew will put her on. I'll shoot pics and video. Have a friend going to help me with the driving :)

May spend a night out in it but then probably coming home. I will wait til summer to break her in properly. Masks will always be worn and I have alcohol and sanitizer in truck at all times.

I'm looking forward to getting her where she belongs :)
 
Here is an interesting article which sheds light on the flu to Covid-19 comparisons. It is dangerous to just read headlines without understanding the underlying information:

"In the last 6 flu seasons, ...counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts."

The latest CDC Covid-19 estimate is some 62,000 deaths in less than half the year.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/
 
I've heard studies say six weeks is as long as most will stay cooped up. Eldorado County is on record as urging the governor to ease restrictions. Eldorado NF has opened the gates and is under no restrictions (campgrounds are still closed). So I went out. Made no stops except where I spent the night.

It looks like business as usual. All the groups were out in force. The ohv crowd, the hikers, mountain bikers, kayakers and others were in abundance. Listening to the FS on the scanner sounded like business as usual.
 
The gates were never closed on the Eldorado National Forest except for the noted facilities closure. Not like Alpine County's request for USFS lands inside their border to be closed.

The annual wet season road closure has been lifted but not in any way associated with the coronavirus pandemic.
 
Please note that the article had as its sub heading that it was an opinion piece.
This story isn't complete.
Search for "Jeremy Samuel Faust" and learn more about him.

Paul
 
They did say the gates at Kyburz and the other end of the Silverfork road were closed earlier. If there is a gate on the MET side of the road it must be newly installed. Still too much snow to get through all the way.
 
Those gates have been in place. The MET - gate at Silver Fork Road and the other at 88 - was always closed seasonally to keep wheeled vehicles from messing with snowmobile use from the Iron Mountain snopark.
 
AWG_Pics said:
I am uncomfortable with the information shared above. We are two months into this pandemic, for the US anyway, and have at least 64,000 deaths so far with no real end in sight. At the current rate it will be no surprise, except an unpleasant one, if there are over 150,000 to 200,000 deaths in the US by December from the coronavirus. Comparisons to the flu are wrong.



One of many articles about flu versus Coronavirus:
https://www.cnn.com/...aths/index.html
Click to expand...
Thank you for your opinion. I like to read all opinions and data presented and come to my own conclusion as I’m sure many others do.

I will point out that I quoted the CDC and you referred to CNN.....

Most models project a death total by the end of they year to be in the 70,000 to 75,000 range. Now I have a strong skepticism when it comes to modeling as I have a few years of experience with it when I was in academia but that is what we have to work with for now.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend.
 
smlobx said:
Thank you for your opinion. I like to read all opinions and data presented and come to my own conclusion as I’m sure many others do.

I will point out that I quoted the CDC and you referred to CNN.....

Most models project a death total by the end of they year to be in the 70,000 to 75,000 range. Now I have a strong skepticism when it comes to modeling as I have a few years of experience with it when I was in academia but that is what we have to work with for now.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend.
Click to expand...
As of 30 minutes ago the death count in the USA is 65,908. Which is likely an undercount.
 
We are already at ~66k deaths in the US with a death rate that is holding pretty constant around 2k/day, so I think it is safe to assume any model that suggests 70-75k deaths in the US for the year is grossly under predicting the total number of deaths. The CDCs model ensemble has a range of 70 - 120k and a median ~80k deaths for mid-May (3 weeks from now), the annual total will clearly be much higher, but is almost impossible to model as we don't know how people/governments will act.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/images/National-Forecast-2020-04-27-1280px.jpg:
National-Forecast-2020-04-27-1280px.jpg



One of the key parameters in the models is contact reduction (aka social distancing) and the same model run with different contact reduction scenarios give vastly different numbers of deaths. Compare the difference between the Columbia University CU-20, CU-30, CU-40 results and that should explain the importance of maintaining some social distancing (these are the same model with a 20/30/40% reduction in contacts). If you look back at what was being predicted 3 weeks ago, the CU-40 curve was pretty close, which explains why the deaths are lower than some of the earliest modeling that did not take social distancing into account.

We can't keep everything shut down for ever, and I am fully supportive of a careful and phased re-opening. But as much as I would like to get out, recreational travel is pretty low on the importance scale for reopening.
 
They may have been referring to the gate at 88 but during the controlled burn they had the upper part of the silverfork road closed and it wouldn't surprise me if they decided a gate was better than having someone sit there in a truck turning people away as they did then.
 
iowahiker said:
We are not traveling and campground closures make travel difficult or impossible. Iowa is two days from the eastern and western mountains but requires developed campgrounds to travel during those two days. My "better half" is catching lots of fish since campground closures restrict out-of-town folks from fishing. My firewood pile will be my biggest on record if travel restrictions last too long. Avoiding the C virus is easy while fishing and cutting firewood. We discuss how to avoid the virus when travel becomes available and have no easy answers and a feeling of DOOM.

Perspectives on BIGGER issues:

Our modern national culture is poorly suited to deal with the C virus. The conflict between individual priorities and the "greater good" is very intense.

"Herd immunity" is not proven. Folks who get a mild case of the C virus can possibly get a second case just like the common cold which is in the same virus family.

The more folks having the C virus at any given time increases the transmission risk to old folks and other "at risk" people and so deaths.

Social distancing is meant to reduce/manage the active cases of C virus and so reduce deaths.

Population lock downs and/or intensive/invasive virus testing/tracking can eliminate the virus (New Zealand, China, South Korea...).

Obviously large/expansive government rules are not perfect and folks can do better using individual initiative. But the "catch 22" is every example of individual initiative success proves global government rules are correct because the individual is doing better than many others. If everyone did the same thing than there would be no empty camping places.

I am not optimistic. Despite political slogans about "life", America does not consider life important. America leads the developed world in suicide, accidental, drug, homicide... deaths. Why not lead the developed world in C virus deaths? I read the last true conservative commentary many years ago which said "freedom is protected by everyone when we are considerate of others". Now all that matters is "me".

Be safe. Be considerate of others. Be good.
Click to expand...
iowahiker, your post prompted some reflection on my part. A few of my thoughts follow ...
Note, I will - and can - speak only of my country and what I know of it, though I imagine much could apply elsewhere.


Most folks have altered their behavior, yes, partly in self interest but also in large measure for the sake of others. And there are stories widely shared of individuals and businesses doing extra, doing wonderful things for others and for the good of the cause. These compassionate acts will be precedents, these people heroes and role models, for the future. These are rays of hope in an otherwise grim situation.


Major disruption can trigger significant societal change. People are taking note of what is working and what isn't and the disparity of it's effect among us. Studies will be done, recommendations will be made. There is great opportunity coming to make change for the better, for the benefit of all. When folks step up to initiate those changes they will need support, this we should expect.

True, we have let opportunities slip by in the past. But this is an extraordinary time. This has been life and death for too many. What is to come we can't know but I am optimistic some real "good" will come out of all this "bad".

Finally, your sign off reminds me of something our Provincial Health Officer often includes in her briefings, "be calm, be kind, be safe".
 
Local hospitals are furloughing people for lack of work. I'm glad the decisions aren't up to me. Too far one way and the hospitalizations and death go up. Too far the other way and businesses go bankrupt and homelessness increases. Never easy to find a path in between.
 
[SIZE=10.5pt]U.S. Forest Service [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Eldorado National Forest [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]100 Forni Road [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Placerville, CA 95667 [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]530-303-2412[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]www.fs.usda.gov/eldoradohttp://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00119Jk...qiQDyKxkb9y-mZKkjtjngzHd2pmey2TODOcIxEVX48A==[/SIZE]


f13f1819-ace3-4afb-8bfb-7ffbe3ac6671.png





[SIZE=36pt]News Release[/SIZE]​
[SIZE=10.5pt]For Immediate Release[/SIZE]​
[SIZE=10.5pt]June 11, 2020[/SIZE]​
[SIZE=10.5pt]Media Contacts: [/SIZE]​
[SIZE=10.5pt]Jennifer Chapman, (530) 957-9660[/SIZE]​



​


Eldorado National Forest Recreation Update: June 11, 2020​
[SIZE=11.5pt]Developed campgrounds begin to open on Friday [/SIZE]​



​


[SIZE=10.5pt]PLACERVILLE, Calif. - [/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt]The Eldorado National Forest is increasing forest access for the public by opening additional developed recreational opportunities across the forest, including 20 developed campgrounds and 2 other designated camping areas that will open on Friday, June 12 (see list below). Visitors are encouraged to check the forest website and social media pages for the most up-to-date information on what is open so that you can plan your visit. You can also call your local ranger station during normal business hours Monday-Friday 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]We continue to recommend that you not travel long distances to recreate. If you or anyone in your household is feeling sick, please remain at home and plan your trip for another time. All visitors should practice self-sufficiency during your visits to national forests. Recreating responsibly will help ensure that expanded access to recreational facilities, services, and opportunities continues. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Responsible recreation practices should be maintained at all times, including:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]• Maintaining at least six feet distancing from others.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]• Do not gather in groups and please follow the latest guidance from officials.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]• Communicate with others. Alert trail users of your presence and step aside to let others pass.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]• Pack out your trash and leave with everything you bring in and use.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]• All services may not be available, so please plan accordingly.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]The Eldorado National Forest will continue to phase in opening of facilities and services as federal, state and county policies, facility preparations and conditions on the ground allow. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]The forest is beginning to open developed campgrounds for individual campsites that provide the opportunity for overnight camping for families or members of the same household. Twenty-two camping locations will open June 12[/SIZE][SIZE=7.5pt]th[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt] with additional developed campgrounds opening over the next several weeks pending site preparation and conditions on the ground. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Group campgrounds will remain closed.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Visitors should plan ahead for their trip as there may be changes from what you typically experience at your favorite campground. Some campsites may not be available in order to allow for proper social distancing between sites and some shared areas may be closed. Please bring all necessary cleaning and sanitization supplies, such as hand sanitizer or soap and a plastic table cloth for picnic tables that can be disposed of or taken back home for washing. Some activities may not be available, such as group picnic areas, swimming beaches or amphitheaters.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=9pt]For those that have reserved campsites in advance, if the campground is not able to be opened, customers will be notified via Recreation.gov and will receive a refund. Some campgrounds are opening earlier than expected. Reservations will be honored if the reservation holder did not already cancel. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]We thank you for your patience up until this point and ask for your continued patience during this transition period.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Please be aware that many of our campgrounds do not typically open until late May or June, even without the challenges associated with COVID-19, due to winter snow and the associated preparation of the sites for the season. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Campgrounds [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]The following campgrounds are open effective June 12[/SIZE][SIZE=7.5pt]th[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt], 2020:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Highway 88 Corridor[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o PiPi CG[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Capps Crossing CG[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Middle Fork Cosumnes CG[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Pardoes Point CG[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Sugar Pine Point CG[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o White Azalea CG[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Mokelumne River CG[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Highway 50 Corridor [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Gray Rock Dispersed Camping Area[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Sand Flat CG[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o China Flat CG [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Silver Fork CG[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Lovers Leap CG [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Crystal Basin Recreation Area[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Icehouse CG[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Fashoda CG [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Gerle Creek CG [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Wench Creek CG[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o West Point CG[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Yellowjacket CG [/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Wolf Creek CG[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Loon Lake CG[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Loon Lake Equestrian (part of Loon Lake CG)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Sunset CG[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Georgetown Vicinity & North[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]o Long Canyon Camping Area[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Day Use, Trailheads, Boat Ramps and Staging Areas[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Day use sites and services continue to expand. Trash removal services remain limited; please pack out all trash and waste. Toilet facilities remain limited; please plan accordingly. For a full list of available day use sites, please visit the [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]forest websitehttp://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00119Jk...qiQDyKxkb9y-mZKkjtjngzHd2pmey2TODOcIxEVX48A==http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00119Jk...qiQDyKxkb9y-mZKkjtjngzHd2pmey2TODOcIxEVX48A==[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt].[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]The safety of our employees and the public will continue to be our number one priority as we closely monitor the situation and implement changes accordingly. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Fire Restrictions[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]Please be aware that fire restrictions are in effect. Campfires are currently prohibited everywhere the Eldorado National Forest except within the stoves (including grills) and fire rings provided in developed campgrounds and recreations sites that are listed as exempt in the forest order. Please refer to [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Forest Order 03-20-12http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00119Jk...qiQDyKxkb9y-mZKkjtjngzHd2pmey2TODOcIxEVX48A==http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00119Jk...qiQDyKxkb9y-mZKkjtjngzHd2pmey2TODOcIxEVX48A==[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt] for details. IMPORTANT: Not all developed campgrounds are exempt from fire restrictions. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]It is also important to note that persons with a valid California Campfire Permit are not exempt from these restrictions. However, persons with a valid California Campfire Permit may use a portable campfire pit, stove or lantern, that uses gas, kerosene, jellied petroleum or pressurized liquid fuel, with a shutoff valve in an area that is at least three feet from any flammable materials. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]California Campfire Permits can be obtained online [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]herehttp://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00119Jk...qiQDyKxkb9y-mZKkjtjngzHd2pmey2TODOcIxEVX48A==http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=00119Jk...qiQDyKxkb9y-mZKkjtjngzHd2pmey2TODOcIxEVX48A==[/SIZE][SIZE=10.5pt].[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]We appreciate your cooperation in keeping our national forests and their surrounding communities safe and healthy for everyone’s use. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Our virtual offices are staffed to provide visitor information from 8:00 am to 4:30 pm, Monday through Friday: [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]· Forest Supervisor’s Office - 530-303-2412[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]· Georgetown Ranger District – 530-334-6477[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]· Placerville/Pacific Ranger District - 916-500-4712[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10.5pt]· Amador Ranger District – 209-259-3774[/SIZE]
​
[SIZE=9pt]###[/SIZE]​



​


[SIZE=10.5pt]The U.S.D.A Forest Service is an equal opportunity employer. The mission of the Forest Service is to sustain the health, diversity, and productivity of the nation's forests and grasslands to meet the needs of present and future generations.[/SIZE]​
 
We've also noticed that the Mono Vista RV Park in downtown Lee Vining, Mono County California has reopened.

The California National Forests were/are waiting on when the state and county health departments would go ahead with authorizing campground reopening. This begins June 12. Thus, our local Eldorado National Forest is beginning to open campgrounds.
 
we will do a 2 night jaunt to central Washington soon. Cherries are coming in and it won't be too blasted hot yet. Will let folks know what we see. Chelan and Douglas counties are under a phase 1.5 opening.
 
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