"The Big One" -- Sure...but When?

[MarkBC]

"An Utterly Terrifying Risk Assessment of California's Next Big Earthquake"

Hmmm.... Glad I don't live in southern California.

In Oregon (and, I think, Washington) our "big one" will be in the Cascadia subduction zone, the last Big One was in 1700 at magnitude 9.
One of these days, there'll be another.

 

[Stan@FourWheel]

Its going to happen sometime.



They have been warning us for years.

I don't worry about it, but I am stocked up with extra food, cases of water, a generator, and such.

I hope for the best and that it doesn't happen anytime soon.

But if the big one hits San Fran/Oakland the ports and bridges could be messed up cutting many needed items to the Bay Area and Sacramento.

We should all be a bit better prepared.

I don't want to rely on the Government to help me or my family. That help wont be soon enough.

Even if I dont use the extra supplies, I can use them for others in need.

 

[craig333]

I worry it'll happen while I'm on some really nasty road and suddenly my road is shaking and -----------------
Other than that I don't worry much. Sac will likely host a lot of refugees though.

 

[ski3pin]

Marc Reisner's book "A Dangerous Place" is a must read if you are interested in the possible effects of "The Big One".

 

[ski3pin]

Somewhat related, anyone remember the Long Valley Caldera near Mammoth Lakes? Whole lot of shaking going on.

Watch 900 earthquakes

 

[PaulT]

Search for "james roddey prophet of doom"
He has been interviewed many times on various national and local shows and has strongly influenced Oregon's planning for The Big One.

If you get a chance to attend one of his lectures on the Cascadia Subduction Zone, don't miss it. He has moved from the Oregon coast to the dry side of the Cascade range in Oregon. Can't imagine why.

My Hawk is my 72 hr kit. Except for water in the winter.

Paul

 

[Wandering Sagebrush]

Its going to happen sometime.

They have been warning us for years.
I don't worry about it, but I am stocked up with extra food, cases of water, a generator, and such.
I hope for the best and that it doesn't happen anytime soon.
But if the big one hits San Fran/Oakland the ports and bridges could be messed up cutting many needed items to the Bay Area and Sacramento.
We should all be a bit better prepared.
I don't want to rely on the Government to help me or my family. That help wont be soon enough.
Even if I dont use the extra supplies, I can use them for others in need.

Stan, your last sentence is one that more folks should make. Kudos!

Steve

 

[soulpatch]

I spent a career as a first responder in SoCal and our mantra for disaster preparation to the public we served was to always be prepared for 72 hours on your own in the event of a significant disaster.
Most of CA has a tremendous ability to respond to a major disaster.
The reality is, though, it can take some time.

 

[MarkBC]

This new USGS forecast puts "The Big One" likelihood a little more likely: 7% chance of Mag 8+ in next 30 years, up from 4.7% chance....something like that. Read the article:

"New Long-Term Earthquake Forecast for California"
Released: 3/10/2015

Cool map -- from the linked USGS article:

 

[CALIcamperdad]

"An Utterly Terrifying Risk Assessment of California's Next Big Earthquake"

Hmmm.... Glad I don't live in southern California.

In Oregon (and, I think, Washington) our "big one" will be in the Cascadia subduction zone, the last Big One was in 1700 at magnitude 9.
One of these days, there'll be another.

No surprise I just get worried about my Realestate risk exposure. We had a 3.1 yesterday morning. Been in this house since 2009 and I'm still not use to hearing them before the ground shakes. Were just east of the major fault line that cuts through Berkley. Hayward fault. Yesterday I was on a work call heard loud pop and rumble and mumbled Earthquake in the middle of my presentation LOL. Split second later the house jolted like the neighbor just backed his truck into my house.

Former owner of this house tore the house back to the bare studs in 91 and removed the spannish tile roof had some structural upgrades done along with no joke 2 layers of inch thick ply put down on the lower level roof then all the tile put back on. The house jiggles a little but doesn't seem to be very bothered by the quakes we've had. Neighbors house across from us little one story he has cracks in his dry wall from the Napa quake last year. Grew up here and am use to the ground shaking but hearing it before the shake is new to me and really weird.

The big Napa quake last year I woke up sounded like someone running up our stairs with army boots on. I told my wife who was awake that the house was going to shake pretty good and bam rock and roll that was a pretty good one.

 

[CALIcamperdad]

We have all our camping gear more or less in an accessible spot even if we have structural damage to the house. Basics like water and food items to get us through a week or so just camping out at the house etc. We have a sailboat down at the marina we keep basics on also which could be an alternate crash pad if things were bad and settled down enough for us to get over to the boat. The folks I worry about the most are the elderly and many of our younger neighbors with young families who are not from this area that really have no experience roughing it for a few days.